How Does Robin Work?

Like most prediction markets the main model on Robin is a two-token model: YES and NO. These tokens can be seen as shares representing an outcome. When a user opens a position, they betting on a market to resolve in one direction. Users are also able to mint both YES and NO tokens to market-make on Robin if they want to take a more active and potentially market neutral style.

At resolution:

• The correct outcome token can be redeemed for $1.

• The losing token becomes worthless.

• All yield generated during the market lifecycle is distributed proportionally to participants based on their role (trader or LP).

Let's dive right in with an example of a market:

Will Elon Musk publically denounce Trump before January 1st 2026?

There are only two answers to the question above: yes and no. Fittingly, the market has two tradable assets (we call them shares): YES and NO. One other thing you need to know, each market is time-bound, meaning it has an expiry date.

The above market expires on January 1st, 2026, which is when we'll know for certain whether Elon Musk has publically denounced Trump. Once we reach this stage, the correct share can be redeemed for $1 — while the other becomes valueless.

Up until that point, though? These shares will trade freely, but the market will price them commensurate with their probability of occurring.

For instance, if YES trades at $0.95 while NO trades at $0.05, it would suggest a high likelihood (95%) that Elon will infact denounce Trump, based on currently available information. Naturally, as more information becomes available, the market will trade to reflect an updated price.

Assuming Elon Musk does denounce Trump and YES resolves to $1.00, anyone that purchased a share at $0.95 will make a $0.05 profit on it. However, should he not denounce Trump, YES resolves to $0.00 while NO resolves to $1.00 — meaning that anyone having purchased NO at $0.05 would have made a per-share profit of $0.95.

On top of this, both YES and NO token holders are paid out DeFi-native yield from our yield-bearing vault, meaning you either amplify your winnings or minimize your losses.